Ukraine-Russia War: An Analysis of Five Things That May Happen in the Future

Ukraine-Russia War: An Analysis of Five Things That May Happen in the Future

There is also the tide of war. Vladimir Putin’s military campaign in Ukraine is no exception.

Initially, it was thought that Russia might soon win the war, but later withdrew in the face of Ukrainian resistance.

 

So the main target of the current Russian invasion is the eastern part of Ukraine.

More than 100 days have already passed since this war. Which way can the situation go after this?

Here are five possible scenarios – one of which is not in conflict with the other, these possibilities have been considered within the limits of reason.

1. Power-loss war

The war could continue for months, even years, until one side of the Russian and Ukrainian forces crushed the other.

With the victory and defeat of both sides, the pace of the battle goes back and forth.

Neither side is willing to give up.

Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks he can benefit by having strategic patience. Because the long war will make the West tired and they will have to deal with their own economic crisis as well as pay more attention to the Chinese threat.

But Western nations have shown resilience and continue to supply arms to Ukraine.

Temporary front lines have been established in the war.

A situation may arise when the armed conflict will end but there will be no peace agreement or political solution.

That means it could turn into an “eternal war.”

Mick Ryan, a former Australian general and military expert, said “there is little chance of either side winning a strategic victory or defeating an opponent in the short term.

2. President Putin announces ceasefire

What if President Putin shocked the world by unilaterally declaring a ceasefire? He can declare Russia “victorious” from the territory they have acquired.

He can claim that his “military campaign” has been completed: Russian-backed separatists have been defended in Donbass, and a land corridor has been established up to Crimea.

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Now he can say that their position was morally correct and that he could put pressure on Ukraine to end the war.

“Russia can use this rice at any time. Let Ukraine surrender its territory in exchange for peace – if Russia wants to use this pressure from Europe as capital, they can do it,” said Kier Giles, a Russian researcher at Chatham House in London.
President Putin may think that the West will be tired of the long war and will one day be busy dealing with its own economic crisis.

Such talk has already been heard in Paris, Berlin and Rome: there is no need to prolong the war, it is time to end the difficult economic situation that has arisen around the world, now let’s push for a ceasefire.

However, most countries in Eastern Europe, including the United States and the United Kingdom, oppose the idea. Policymakers in those countries believe Russia’s campaign must fail in the interests of Ukraine and the international community.

As a result, Russia’s unilateral declaration of a ceasefire could change the situation, but it will not end the war.

3. Stagnation on the battlefield

Can both Ukraine and Russia conclude that they have nothing more to gain militarily and that they can negotiate a political solution?

Their army is exhausted, has no manpower and is running out of military supplies. After the amount of bloodshed and loss of resources, there is no point in further war. Russia’s military and economic losses are no longer to be borne.

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The Ukrainian people are tired of war, they do not want to risk any more casualties in the hope that one day they will win the war.

What if Kiev’s leadership loses confidence in the continued support of the Western world and decides that now is the time for negotiations?

US President Joe Biden has publicly acknowledged that the US goal is to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the negotiating table as much as possible.

But for many months to come, such a stalemate will not be created on the battlefield and no political solution will be heard. Because Ukraine lacks confidence in Russia.

As a result, there may be no peace agreement and more wars may break out.

4. Ukraine’s ‘victory’

What if Ukraine achieved something close to victory against the odds? Can Ukraine force Russian troops to return to where they were before the operation began?

“Ukraine must win the war,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told Dutch TV.

What if Russia fails to occupy the entire Donbass area and they suffer further losses?

Russia’s ability to fight has been damaged by Western sanctions. Ukraine is retaliating with long-range rockets. They are recapturing areas where Russian military supplies have reached.

Ukraine has transformed its army from a defensive to an offensive force.

If so, there is good reason for policymakers to be concerned about the consequences.

If President Putin loses, will he be able to spread the war, using chemical or nuclear weapons?

Historian Niall Ferguson recently said at a seminar at King’s College London that “since President Putin has nuclear weapons, I do not think he will accept military defeat.”

5. Russia’s victory
And the possibility of Russia’s victory?

Western officials say Russia has plans to occupy the capital, Kyiv, and much of Ukraine, even after the initial push.

“These ultimate goals are still with them,” an official said.

They can use the progress that Russia has made in Donbass. Their troops can now fight elsewhere. They may even try one more time in Kiev................

The casualties of the Ukrainian forces continue.

President Zelensky has already said that 100 of their soldiers are being killed and another 500 wounded every day.

The people of Ukraine may also be divided, some may want to continue the war, others may want peace.

Some Western nations may be tired of supporting Ukraine.

But similarly, if they see that Russia is going to win, they may want to spread the war.

A Western diplomat has told me privately that Western powers could test nuclear weapons in the Pacific to warn Russia.

Brenda Hoyt

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